Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 13.958382 15.968836 18.136916 20.645057 23.462812 26.526706 30.106506
2025-02-16 10.855599 13.547536 16.678523 20.574145 25.274986 30.747266 37.581832
2025-02-23 9.274533 12.242218 15.865096 20.585135 26.540819 33.771808 43.177907
2025-03-02 8.170857 11.337566 15.372598 20.846276 28.026147 37.065305 49.239711
2025-03-09 7.247430 10.508985 14.824042 20.887078 29.111061 39.791555 54.609139
2025-03-16 6.409596 9.683874 14.169611 20.680177 29.786357 41.951626 59.287349
2025-03-23 5.838707 9.157608 13.850641 20.863960 30.946460 44.759082 64.914598
2025-03-30 5.492330 8.912762 13.890126 21.526804 32.779046 48.543694 72.036777
2025-04-06 4.963271 8.335229 13.385306 21.339772 33.350019 50.553253 76.725935
2025-04-13 4.290205 7.464806 12.362234 20.286477 32.552264 50.519862 78.431607
2025-04-20 4.048273 7.258362 12.335785 20.738687 34.018096 53.836228 85.158729
2025-04-27 3.824100 7.057765 12.296788 21.156333 35.436928 57.129215 91.977956
2025-05-04 3.493962 6.653874 11.907877 21.001273 35.972065 59.144944 97.022872
2025-05-11 3.171387 6.232541 11.455929 20.707318 36.260363 60.785361 101.561379
2025-05-18 2.949898 5.969088 11.245873 20.792542 37.152970 63.391964 107.698568
2025-05-25 2.774131 5.772411 11.133743 21.030894 38.302284 66.447630 114.668898
2025-06-01 2.585732 5.533124 10.925113 21.080468 39.123632 68.993227 120.905716
2025-06-08 2.377819 5.235436 10.585752 20.869028 39.472967 70.761313 125.923139
2025-06-15 2.242195 5.068180 10.472986 21.055275 40.518022 73.723217 133.027059
2025-06-22 2.177495 5.039426 10.618220 21.723279 42.448725 78.260283 142.955147
2025-06-29 2.014979 4.790663 10.319940 21.534811 42.814468 80.113819 148.368722
2025-07-06 1.770470 4.341711 9.592504 20.472759 41.509194 78.984518 148.564125
2025-07-13 1.706609 4.283278 9.643574 20.928730 43.053876 82.942967 157.799953